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Reuters

New index shows U.S. inflation expectations shifting higher

One-year U.S. inflation expectations have rocketed higher since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the longer-term outlook has begun increasing as well, a development likely to be watched closely by the Federal Reserve as it battles to keep price pressures under control. The index is based on trading in the roughly $300 billion monthly market for inflation-protected U.S. Treasury securities and in the $100 billion monthly market for inflation swaps contracts. Inflation anticipated over longer 10- and six-year horizons has also turned abruptly higher since the onset of the Ukraine war, with rates as of Monday around 2.43% and 2.73%, respectively, significantly above the Fed’s 2% annual price increase target, the index shows.

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